Short · 0:30
Bank Your Vote
Request it, fill it out, return it early. Make November too big to rig.
The Battlefield
Oakland is the second-largest county in Michigan and it leans against us. The models say so plainly, and that is exactly why precision matters here more than anywhere: every statewide Republican needs a smaller Oakland deficit, and a dozen local races are decided inside the margin of a good turnout program.
Modeled baseline: each voter's turnout propensity is summed to estimate the electorate; propensity multiplied by affinity estimates the Republican share. The model's expected turnout of lines up closely with the 611,555 voters on this file with a recorded November 2022 vote, which is the sanity check that the propensity scores are calibrated for a midterm.
Bedrock, Educate, Sleeping Giants, Deciders
Every voter at 0.6 or higher on Affinity is ours. What separates them is whether they show up. Everyone between 0.4 and 0.6 who reliably votes is a persuasion target. Those four groups get four different programs, because they are four very different kinds of people.
Why the county party owns Educate
National and statewide campaigns are concentrating their turnout operations on the Sleeping Giants, the Republicans at 0.3 and below on propensity. We contribute to that effort significantly, and their focus is what frees the county party to own the block above it. The Educate universe is voters we know are conservative, who don't vote reliably but can be pushed to vote with a few touches. of them voted in November 2024; only voted in November 2022.
Most importantly, they are the Republicans least likely to know who their local conservative candidates are, especially in nonpartisan races like school board, where nothing on the ballot tells them. A slate card or voter guide in their hands pays massive dividends for our down-ballot and nonpartisan candidates at minimal cost. No one else in the Republican ecosystem is going to do it for Oakland County.
Five lanes for Deciders
A swing voter is not a moderate on everything. Each Decider is scored on every issue model, and each is routed to the lane where they already agree with us most. Nobody gets a generic mail piece.
Where the Deciders stand, issue by issue
Share of the persuasion universe holding the conservative position (0.6+), the middle (0.4–0.6) and the liberal position (under 0.4) on each model.
Liberal positionMiddleConservative position
The lesson: swing voters in Oakland respond to border security, school choice and public safety. That is where our candidates lead.
The universes nobody else is building
This is where crossing models pays off. Each universe below is a specific group of real Oakland voters, defined by two or more scores, with its own job, message and channel. Filter by mission.
Jewish voters across the grid
Jewish outreach: voters
With Abdul El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate and the Democratic Party's turn against Israel, Jewish voters who have voted Democratic for decades, and those already in the swing band, have a reason to split their ticket this year. They are a major outreach focus for us.
Where they live
You can't persuade a voter you can't reach
of our active universe scores 0.9 or higher on the Cord Cutter model. No broadcast or cable buy from any Republican committee will ever touch them. We reach them the only ways left: at the door, on the phone, in the mailbox and on the streaming platforms they actually use.
Cord-cut: Cord Cutter model 0.9+. Absentee-inclined: ABEV Preference 0.6+. Election-Day-inclined: ABEV under 0.4. The ABEV model tracks behavior closely: among voters scoring 0.8+, 92% of those who voted in November 2022 did so absentee; among voters under 0.2, 7% did.
Where they live
Each dot is roughly one square kilometer of Oakland County. Dot size is the number of registered voters; color is the share of those voters in the selected universe.
Hover or tap a dot for counts
OCRP in every community
Finding the next activist, delegate, and donor
The school board universe, district by district
Households with school-age children, at 0.4+ on Affinity. Engaged Parents score 0.5+ on Parental Education Involvement; School-Choice Households score 0.6+ on School Choice. This is the mail, text and door list for every board slate we support.
What the program is worth in votes
Net votes added for Republican candidates
0
Educate: new voters
Educate: slate-card ballots finished
Sleeping Giants turnout
Jewish outreach ticket-splitters
Deciders persuaded
Local-First ballots held
Net votes means the change in the Republican margin. A new Educate or Sleeping Giants voter is counted at that universe's average affinity; a persuaded Decider or Jewish ticket-splitter adds two, because it also takes one away from the other column; a slate-card or Local-First ballot finished down-ticket is counted as one, for the down-ballot candidate. These are planning estimates from modeled scores and the rates you choose, not a forecast.
44 days, then the long game
Absentee ballots start going out September 24. Early in-person voting runs October 24 through November 1. Election Day is November 3. Each universe enters the calendar when contact with it moves the most votes.
Five breaks from the old playbook
Old: target by party and precinct
Target by person
Two voters in the same house can sit in different universes. Each one gets the message and the channel the models say will land with them.
Old: one persuasion message
Route by issue
Every Decider is assigned to the lane where they already agree with us. We open with common ground instead of hoping a generic piece hits.
Old: buy TV, hope
Buy reach, not airtime
The Cord Cutter model tells us which voters television cannot touch. They get doors, phones, mail and streaming. The few still on cable get cable.
Old: one GOTV script
Match the vote method
The ABEV model sorts our voters into ballot-chase and show-up-in-person programs, so nobody is nagged about a ballot they never wanted.
Old: Republican means one thing
Meet Republicans where they are
Republicans don't all care about the same things. Each hears from us about what matters to them, from a messenger they trust, and each gets a reason to finish the ballot.
Old: lists expire on Election Day
Close the loop
Every door, call and reply is an ID that goes back into the file. November's turnout becomes 2027's delegate, donor and volunteer prospect list.
The video we’re running now
OCRP has produced far more creative than what appears here. These are the eleven spots we are currently publicizing on YouTube. Every spot is cut to play muted in the feed, run as pre-roll, and go out by text to absentee voters on the day their ballot arrives. Tap any thumbnail to watch it on YouTube, or copy the link to share it.
Short · 0:30
Short · 0:30
Turn It Over Before You Turn It In
Straight-ticket skips the nonpartisan section. Vote both sides, sign the envelope, then turn it in.
Video · 0:30
Thousands Stopped Halfway
How many Oakland County votes were left blank on the back of the ballot in 2024, and why the Voter Guide fixes it.
Video · 2:20
Full Speed Ahead
Audience: Precinct delegates, activists and donors
The OCRP story: the earliest coordinated field program in Michigan Republican history and 237,803 doors knocked.
Video · 2:15
Fund the Fight for Oakland
Audience: Precinct delegates, activists and donors
Best-in-class i360 voter data, the voters who decide close races, and surround-sound messaging. Also runs as the membership pitch.
Short · 0:45
Why Volunteer with OCRP
Audience: Activist activation
Every one of Oakland County’s 1,046,347 voters modeled. Here’s who we’re going after, and where volunteers come in.
Too Dangerous
Huron Valley parents warned the district and were ignored. Say no to another term for Wiseman and Pistana.
Short · 0:36
He Mocked Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
Walt Cook, in his own words: the text messages OCRP released on Aug. 21.
Viewer discretion: contains news coverage of Charlie Kirk’s assassination.
Short · 0:30
No Remorse
Since his texts were exposed, Cook hasn’t apologized. He is raising money off of it.
Short · 0:15
Communism Fails
The spot that runs with the “Radical Walt Cook” mail piece. Silenced speech. Empty shelves.
Video · 0:15
Beau Taylor: Wrong for Troy Schools
Taylor openly affiliates with “No Kings,” an organization reported to be tied to Antifa.
The mail we’re featuring now
These three pieces are the ones we are currently publicizing, not the full mail program. The mail makes the case, and matched digital, video and texts keep it in front of the same household the same day. Each piece below goes to the universe named on it. Tap a side to enlarge it.
2026 Voter Guide
Countywide slate mailer · Universe: Educate universe · absentee requesters first
The backbone of the get-out-the-vote and voter education program. It tells voters to vote straight-ticket Republican, then turn the ballot over and vote for every GOP-endorsed judicial and school board candidate in the nonpartisan section. A QR code takes them straight to their voting options.
In the mail nowPairs with: Turn It Over, Thousands Stopped HalfwayNonpartisan section focus
Protect Our Daughters
Troy School Board · Mail piece 1 · Universe: Deciders · ~7,800 persuadable Troy voters
Puts the fairness of girls’ sports in front of Troy families and warns that if Cook, Taylor and their allies have their way, boys competing in girls’ sports could happen here. The reverse covers Taylor’s support for a group tied to what federal officials have called a domestic terrorist organization.
Pairs with: Beau Taylor spotMatched digital to the same voters
Radical Walt Cook
Troy School Board · Mail piece 2 · Universe: Bedrock + Educate · 11,000+ Troy conservatives
Covers the company Cook keeps: his endorsement by an organization that also backs a self-identified socialist felon and a candidate OCRP calls a “communist China-loving radical,” and asks whether someone with those allies should be making decisions about Troy’s children.
Pairs with: Communism Fails, He Mocked, No RemorseBallot-timed texting
Text & Digital Advertising
The graphics we’re running now by text message and in digital ads, working alongside the mail and video above. Tap any graphic to enlarge it.